Note from Editor:
Elections Have Consequences
By Paul Barker
Even though the margins were ultimately tight, the result of the November 5 elections in the US were decisive: Donald Trump will return to the White House, Republicans will have slim majorities in both the Senate and House of Representatives, and the archconservative, Republican leaning, Supreme Court may become yet more firmly entrenched.
With regard to Iran policy, the emerging Trump team is sending contradictory signals. His announced nominations for Secretaries of Defense and State, Director of National Intelligence and other key national security positions are understood to be Iran hawks and predisposed to confrontation and conflict with that country. Trump himself has made both bombastic declarations about Iran and conciliatory statements of his hopes for a negotiated resolution to the nuclear standoff and a more happy and prosperous time for the Iranian people. As for the Iranian side, President Pezeshkian sent a congratulatory statement to President Elect Trump, and has agreed with the head of the IAEA that Iran would cease further enrichment of uranium to 60% and would increase transparency about its nuclear programs. As a further signal of thawing possibilities, Trump’s new friend and confidante, Elon Musk, held a meeting with the Iranian Ambassador to the UN in New York, Amir Saeed Iravani, to explore steps which would reduce tensions between the two countries. While no details are available about those talks, they could not have happened at all without the knowledge and support of both Trump and Khamenei.
Iran-US relations are complicated by the unresolved tit-for-tat hostilities between Iran and Israel which have featured in Israel’s expanding war in recent months. Israel may well be itching for an excuse and opportunity to strike Iran’s nuclear and energy assets in some sort of coordination with the United States. The Christian Zionists nominated for a number of key posts in the Trump administration are likely to be even more zealous supporters of Israeli militarism than the Biden administration has been. Whether or not there will be further escalations in the remaining two months of Biden’s lame-duck period and whether or not the Trump zealots will have more influence in his administration than Trump’s anti-war instincts are unknown unknowns to watch for in the coming months.
One ominous piece of legislation was passed by the House on 21 November 2024 is HR 9495, The Stop Terror-Financing and Tax Penalties on American Hostages Act — which would allow the Treasury Department unilateral authority to revoke the tax-exempt status of any nonprofit it designates as a “terrorist supporting organization.” This legislation would have grave implications for any NGO involved in advocacy or humanitarian work which the administration believes is counter to its wishes. This would most clearly target organizations advocating for Palestinian rights but could also be a threat to agencies that advocate for diplomacy over war with Iran and the peaceful cooling of any number of other hot spots around the world. In the House 15 Democratic sadly votes in its favor. Hopefully it will face stiffer resistance in the Senate whenever it comes up there.
To the extent that the Biden administration has used its influence with the Israeli government to restrict and restrain its retaliation to Iranian provocations and has used back-channel communications with the Iranians to urge them to delay and restrain their retaliation to Israeli provocations, I thank them. I hope the Trump administration will be able to do even more to contain and refocus the worst instincts of Israeli and Iranian leaders. The US and all countries in the greater Middle East have much to gain by ending the current wars and building structures to enhance the security and prosperity of all countries. As we head into the holiday season, may we work to ensure that we have more things to celebrate in the New Year.
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